When marketers say they can’t afford billboards, they’re solving the wrong problem
“We don’t have the budget for that.”
That’s the line Chris Farnkopf hears constantly. As Sales Leader at Blip, he spends every day talking to marketers who’ve already decided billboards require five- or six-figure budgets they don’t have.
To reframe the entire conversation, Chris urges marketers to stop asking, “Can we afford a billboard?” Instead he wants you to ask, “How many customers does this billboard need to generate to pay for itself?”
For most businesses, the break-even threshold is surprisingly low.
Key Takeaways:
- Billboard ROI calculation starts with transaction value, not impressions. Determine your average customer purchase, then divide monthly billboard cost by that number to reveal minimum customers needed to break even.
- Most businesses need fewer conversions than expected to break even. A furniture retailer spending $2,500/month on a billboard needs just 3 customers at $1,000 average purchase value—roughly one customer per week.
- Creative alignment determines whether you can track success. If you need foot traffic but advertise a phone number, or need e-commerce sales but show a physical address, you won’t be able to measure if you’re hitting your unit economics targets.
Breaking The “We’re Too Broke” Perception
Three misconceptions work together to craft the “we can’t afford this” sentence:
- Marketers picture Times Square spectaculars and Sunset Strip billboards. Everything seems premium-priced.
- Early-stage brands focus on performance marketing channels with direct dollar-in, dollar-out attribution. They’re convinced out-of-home can’t deliver measurable ROI like Google or Facebook.
- They’re trapped in attribution models that give credit to search and social while out-of-home drives the initial awareness and consideration.
The budget objection starts with price misconceptions, but it goes deeper than simple sticker shock.
“Marketers have this preconceived notion that it’s an expensive channel. Can’t be measured. Takes a long time to execute,” Chris says. “But the average billboard only costs somewhere between $600 and $1,200.”
So instead, small-to-medium businesses pour money into expensive digital ads with diminishing returns, and the cost is only getting higher. Google and Facebook have built walled gardens that suggest spending money there works, then make it difficult to test other channels. These platforms get last-touch attribution credit for demand that other channels created.
But once you stop thinking in CPMs and start thinking in product units, you’ll find that the math works for businesses of all sizes.
How to Use Unit Economics to Prove OOH is a Good Investment
At the end of the day, OOH marketing requires remarkably low conversion volumes to achieve positive ROI.
“If you’re a quick-serve restaurant chain and you want to drive people through your drive through to buy your latest chicken sandwich, how many do you have to sell in order for that billboard to make sense? Often, it’s not many chicken sandwiches,” Chris explains.
He has four simple steps to shake off that instinctual “we’re too broke for this” feeling.
1: Identify Your Average Transaction Value
Before you can calculate break-even customer volume, you need to know what one customer is worth.
“If you’re a retailer, it doesn’t matter if you’re a boutique retailer or a Fortune 100 brand like Home Depot. What is the average sales price for the item or the service that you sell?” Chris asks.
This could be:
- Average order value for e-commerce
- Average ticket for restaurants
- Average service fee for professional services
- Average purchase for retail
For businesses with varying transaction values, use a conservative average that accounts for typical customer behavior. A furniture retailer might average $1,000 per transaction even though individual items range from $200 to $5,000. A quick-serve restaurant might use $8-12 per order.
Establishing a realistic baseline that reflects actual customer behavior lets you calculate exactly how many customers the billboard needs to drive to break even.
2: Calculate Break-Even Customer Volume
Take the monthly billboard cost and divide by your average transaction value. That number reveals the minimum customers needed to justify the investment.
Once you have the minimum, run a simulation of the actual numbers:
- $2,500 billboard ÷ $1,000 average furniture purchase = 3 customers per month (roughly one per week)
- $1,500 billboard ÷ $10 burger = 150 customers per month (roughly 5 per day)
When marketers see these calculations, they often realize the threshold is far more achievable than assumed. It becomes less about whether you can afford the billboard and more about how realistic it is that the billboard can drive those specific customer numbers.
3: Adjust for High-Value Transaction Categories
Some business categories have transaction values so high that a single customer can justify months of billboard investment.
Personal injury attorneys, for example, might spend $2,500/month on a billboard but generate a single case worth hundreds of thousands in fees. Hospitals might invest $5,000/month but acquire patients requiring tens of thousands in treatment. Cosmetic surgery, luxury goods, and B2B services all follow similar economics.
Chris notes:
“You could be looking at that one billboard for $1,500, $2,500 a month generating sales that are in the tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or even millions of dollars”
Understanding your transaction value reveals whether you’re in a business where one customer justifies the entire investment or where you need consistent volume to break even.
4: Align Creative with Measurable Objectives
Understanding unit economics is only valuable if you can actually measure whether the billboard is driving those customers.
“I can sell you the billboard, but it’s only as effective as what you put on it,” Chris emphasizes. “If you’re a restaurant and you want to drive walk-ins, but you’re advertising a phone number, is the consumer going to call and ask for your address?”
Match your creative message to your measurement objective:
- Driving in-store traffic? Include directional messaging (“Exit here, turn right”)
- Need website visits? Feature your URL prominently
- Want app downloads? State “Download our app” (Obvious, but must be stated)
- Need phone calls? Include a trackable number
Avoid disconnects as much as you can. If you calculate that you need 12 furniture store visits per month to break even, but your billboard shows a phone number instead of directions guiding people to your store, you can’t accurately track your ROI.
Creative clarity directly impacts your ability to measure against your unit economics model.
When The Math is “Math”ing
Chris walks marketers through the complete calculation to transform the “we don’t have budget” objection into a conversation about customer acquisition cost.
“You’re a furniture retailer buying a $2,500 billboard. I promise you that on Saturday, when you’ve got peak traffic of couples or new homeowners or new renters coming in, they’re each gonna spend $1,000,” Chris explains. “So in a month, that billboard drove 12 people into your store. That’s $12,000 relative to the $2,500 that you paid me. Would you like to renew next month?”
Chris’s example spits out a 4.8x return.
This math is comparable to or better than many digital channels, especially when considering that OOH not only brings ROI, but also builds brand awareness (that makes every other marketing dollar work harder) and drives future digital conversions. When consumers see your digital ads after passing your billboard twice daily, they’re no longer cold prospects—they’re warm leads who already recognize your brand.
When you know your numbers, billboards stop being an expense you can’t afford and start being a channel you can’t ignore.
FAQ:
How do I calculate unit economics if my business has multiple product tiers?
Use weighted average transaction value based on actual sales mix. If 60% of customers buy your $500 tier and 40% buy your $2,000 tier, your weighted average is $1,100. This conservative approach accounts for customer behavior patterns while giving you a realistic break-even target.
What if my business has long sales cycles that make immediate ROI tracking difficult?
Track leading indicators that correlate with eventual sales: consultation bookings, quote requests, demo sign-ups, or high-intent website visits. Calculate the conversion rate from these indicators to final sales, then use that to determine how many leading indicators justify your billboard spend. B2B services and high-consideration purchases work the same way—you’re measuring the right milestone.
